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CITIC Securities: Short-term white horse style may be dominated by stages due to compensatory growth and repair. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that looking forward to 2025, we expect that the market style will gradually switch from individual investors to institutional investors, and ETF will become an important configuration tool. We believe that the construction of ETF portfolio should mainly depend on the judgment of style rotation and timing. We believe that in the short term, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party and the Central Economic Work Conference will once again confirm the policy inflection point, which is expected to boost institutional investors' risk appetite, and the white horse style may prevail in stages due to compensatory growth and repair. However, in the large-cycle environment, it is still unable to meet the conditions for the continued dominance of white horse stocks, and it is necessary to continue to observe the price signals and policies."Shanghai housing subsidy is 300,000 yuan" and "down payment is 20,000 yuan to buy 1.8 million hardcover existing houses"? Rumor has come. Recently, there have been a number of housing advertisements on the short video platform. The agent who released the housing claimed that he could receive the "housing subsidy" when buying a house in Shanghai, with the amount ranging from 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan. An intermediary declared: "Shanghai Songjiang New Town has a total price of 760,000 yuan and a housing subsidy of 250,000 yuan." "After receiving the subsidy, you can buy a 78-square-meter house with a down payment of 50,000 yuan." There is also an intermediary who claims: "The minimum payment can be only 20,000 yuan, and you can buy a finely decorated existing house with a total price of 1.8 million yuan." The reporter consulted a number of intermediaries and learned that the so-called "purchase subsidies" appearing in short videos are not government subsidies, but gimmicks. When the house-watchers consult subsidies on the spot, different intermediaries will have different calibers. Usually, there are three routines-one is to raise the price first and then lower the price. Second, the so-called "subsidy" is actually that developers lend money to buyers to pay down payment, and buyers have to pay interest. Third, the commission returned by the intermediary to the buyers is packaged as a "subsidy". (Shanghai rumor platform)The moderate increase in inflation in the United States consolidated the expectation of interest rate cuts in December. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor on December 11, local time, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3% in November, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over October. Inflation continues to rise moderately, which is in line with the market's previous judgment and also supports the expectation that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this month. However, considering the slowdown in inflation and the increase in uncertainties affecting the economy, many analysts believe that the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the future. (Economic Information Daily)

CITIC Securities: It is expected that the global semiconductor and hardware fundamentals will resume their upward trend from the second quarter of next year. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the global semiconductor and hardware fundamentals are expected to remain weak from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, and will resume their upward trend from the second quarter of 2025. Similar to 2024, GenAI is expected to continue to be the core driving force, but industrial opportunities are expected to continue to spread around NVIDIA. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the recovery progress of IT expenditure of European and American enterprises after the US election, the pull of end-side AI and windows10 EOL on consumer electronics and bulk storage chips, and the recovery process of automobile and industrial sectors at the bottom of the cycle. Tariff and trade policies, US macro and inflation data, and GenAI technology progress are expected to continue to be the core influencing variables of the industry. At the sub-sector level, our preference order is: advanced process, AI network (Ethernet equipment and high-speed interface), AI computing chip (ASIC, commercial GPU), AI server, enterprise IT equipment (network equipment, high-end storage, general server), consumer electronics (PC, mobile phone), analog chip, semiconductor equipment, bulk storage chip, mature process and so on.Haitong Securities: The moderate price reduction of traditional Chinese medicine varieties continues. The domestic pharmaceutical industry is expected to set off a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Haitong Securities released a research report saying that the moderate price reduction of traditional Chinese medicine varieties continues. In 2024, the traditional Chinese medicine industry was under pressure due to the pressure of pharmacy terminal sales and inventory pressure, and it is expected to return to a good situation in the next 25 years. In addition, the continuous technological changes in the pharmaceutical industry, the development of IPO to mergers and acquisitions and the promotion of corporate governance optimization at the shareholder level are the main reasons for promoting mergers and acquisitions in the industry. In terms of fields, mergers and acquisitions are expected to occur intensively in sub-sectors such as medical devices, Chinese medicine, medical services, blood products and scientific research services.The A-share financing balance hit a new high of more than 9 years, and the big consumption sector broke out. According to china securities journal, on December 12, the A-share market opened lower and went higher. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by nearly 1%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose by more than 1%. More than 3,500 stocks in the entire A-share market rose, with more than 150 stocks trading daily, and the big consumer sector broke out. The market turnover was 1.89 trillion yuan, which has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 52 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the A-share market. In terms of funds, Wind data shows that as of December 11th, the financing balance in the A-share market was 1,875.85 billion yuan, a record high of over 9 years. In the first three trading days of this week, the financing balance "increased three times in a row", with a cumulative increase of 22.579 billion yuan. Analysts believe that short-term ample liquidity and optimistic policy expectations are still the main support of the market. In the medium and long term, the A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward under the dual promotion of policy expectations and economic trends.

The yield of 10-year active bonds in China inter-bank bond market initially dropped by more than 3 basis points to 1.775% and then hit a record low. The yield of 30-year active bonds in China inter-bank bond market initially dropped by nearly 4 basis points to 2%, also hitting a record low.Luxury car dealers "switch to" domestic brands, and the competition between new and old forces spread to the channel side. Recently, Beijing Huayang Aotong Automobile Sales Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Huayang Aotong") announced that "the company will no longer continue the distribution business of Audi brands, but will continue to engage in the maintenance business of Audi models". On December 12, the reporter went to Huayang Aotong in Laiguangying, Beijing. The above announcement was posted at the entrance, and the store has been replaced with the "AITO" logo. There is no Audi car in the store, and it has been replaced by two models for sale in the world. A luxury brand dealer who did not want to be named revealed to reporters that Huayang Aotong had indeed been cancelled by Audi, and Zhengzhou Zhongsheng Huidi Store was also withdrawn from the network with it, all because it switched to Huawei's channel network without permission. "The war between new forces and traditional car companies has burned from the product side to the channel side." According to Zhang Xiuyang, secretary-general of China Passenger Car Industry Alliance, the "price war" that lasted for nearly two years has made it difficult for car dealers who are in retail terminals and have been upside down all the year round, and their loyalty has also declined. At the same time, in the tide of the era of smart cars, the concept of consumption is changing rapidly, and the high-end electric vehicle brands in China are gradually winning the wide favor of the market and consumers. (Securities Daily)Guotai Junan: It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate in the bottom range in 2025, and there is a strong opportunity and space for rebound. Guotai Junan Securities recently reported that the lithium price has entered the bottom range by the end of 2024. If the demand maintains the current neutral estimate in 2025, the lithium price will fluctuate in the bottom range. At present, the market is optimistic about the demand in 2025, and the industry supply has slowed down. It is estimated that the price trend of lithium will fluctuate in the bottom range in 2025, in which the stage is affected by seasonal factors and there is a strong rebound opportunity and space. The market expected the trading of lithium plate earlier, that is, when the commodity price bottomed out, the lithium plate already contained the expectation of industrial clearing. When the industry actually enters the stage of supply and clearing, the sector will trade commodity price reversal expectations. From this, we infer that the rise of lithium plate will start before the spot price reverses.